Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.463022 0.538850 0.622783 0.722524 0.837775 0.966725 1.121921
2025-03-02 0.331545 0.431002 0.553270 0.714396 0.920939 1.176636 1.517106
2025-03-09 0.263328 0.370545 0.512598 0.714079 0.992028 1.361519 1.889661
2025-03-16 0.210243 0.315795 0.464514 0.688545 1.016692 1.478924 2.178742
2025-03-23 0.190848 0.303090 0.469743 0.733984 1.141196 1.743565 2.700867
2025-03-30 0.160318 0.267941 0.435582 0.714106 1.163638 1.858815 3.013232
2025-04-06 0.135371 0.237142 0.402809 0.690121 1.173886 1.952977 3.299629
2025-04-13 0.115611 0.211602 0.374401 0.668220 1.182731 2.043017 3.586045
2025-04-20 0.103950 0.198138 0.364053 0.674715 1.238734 2.214886 4.026192
2025-04-27 0.098283 0.194526 0.370119 0.710284 1.348818 2.489613 4.673609
2025-05-04 0.091297 0.187350 0.368597 0.731341 1.434313 2.728881 5.282143
2025-05-11 0.083493 0.177419 0.360498 0.738579 1.494062 2.926380 5.833047
2025-05-18 0.075352 0.165905 0.348322 0.737215 1.538780 3.103797 6.372549
2025-05-25 0.067568 0.154069 0.334080 0.730048 1.571456 3.262328 6.895027
2025-06-01 0.061409 0.144817 0.323885 0.729777 1.617790 3.452144 7.500628
2025-06-08 0.053880 0.131379 0.302985 0.703699 1.606025 3.521329 7.862214
2025-06-15 0.052765 0.132587 0.314310 0.750112 1.757122 3.947247 9.030138
2025-06-22 0.046995 0.121850 0.297271 0.729808 1.756480 4.046479 9.493587
2025-06-29 0.041649 0.111365 0.279446 0.705309 1.743032 4.115467 9.895761
2025-07-06 0.037062 0.102124 0.263386 0.682938 1.731727 4.187574 10.312099
2025-07-13 0.034568 0.097985 0.259306 0.689572 1.791189 4.429191 11.152791
2025-07-20 0.033792 0.098350 0.266609 0.725904 1.928359 4.868517 12.515495
2025-07-27 0.032313 0.096564 0.268130 0.747412 2.030381 5.233190 13.732688